Earlier this month we rolled out Inside Medicine’s new one-stop shop for up-to-date Covid-19 metrics, from hospitalizations and ICU admissions, to wastewater levels (the best proxy for case counts we have these days). While the data we’ve aggregated are all available elsewhere in some form or another, our goal is to make it easy for readers to find all the relevant updated data in one place.
I think this is a great idea. We have been sadly lacking in stats, especially since the CDC stopped reporting in real time on deaths. Even now, their page that you refer us to doesn't seem to show US total deaths. With that in mind, could you please explain your sources in more detail? I am particularly interested in deaths because the other metrics are "fuzzier" and I am more focused on the mortality risk for me and my wife. We'd like to get a better handle on the risk of death from COVID versus the risk from flu before the pandemic. That's a useful comparison for us because there was no way flu risks informed or curtailed our daily life (except for annual vaxxes). From looking at CDC historical figures on deaths from flu in the 10 years preceding COVID, the annual deaths ranged widely. We found that the peak was in the low 50,000s and the average was about 35,000. In our minds we decided that if we got to a daily COVID rate that was pretty much equivalent to double the average, i.e. about 70K, we would feel that living a pretty "normal" life would be (psychologically)manageable. In 2021 and 2022 we felt fairly confident that the death data we received on a weekly (and hence daily and annually) basis was pretty good. Different sources collected the data but the numbers were reasonably similar. This year, particularly after sources other than the CDC stopped reporting (notably Johns Hopkins), and the CDC itself stopped with the end of end of health emergency, we don't find the figures easy to access and less believable. For example, the "excess deaths" calculated based on the CDC numbers seem questionable because they have recalculated "normal" deaths from all causes to include the pandemic years of 2021 and 2022. Obviously this creates a higher normal and a lower excess number. This is a very longwinded comment and series of questions, but we'd sure appreciate any help you can provide. The current graph of deaths seems way too low - extrapolating from the current 215 a day gets to only about 78,000 per year which would be nice but seems much too good to be "true". I believe you were calculating excess deaths as your measure. If you still do that, how do you deal with the change in the baseline? And are you using a calculation of excess deaths to create your death chart, because I couldn't even find any reported "baseline" numbers on the CDC website location you linked us too. Again, the CDC data is very hard for us to access and rely on. Can you please help a couple in their mid to late '70s who desperately need to feel comfortable with "living again".
You guys are seriously wearing the superhero capes! This question is totally the user (me) not being able to interpret the lines. Can we tell from the lines if our county has moved from “low” to “medium”? Basically when would it be a smart move to mask up again? I feel like we are still behind the power curve if this virus, BUT THIS SIGHT IS JUST THE BEST!!!!!!
jmoore, per YALE Medicine,the last CV19 Subvaiaint is"ERIS" (EG.5) which is highly transmittable. Mask up Cowboy especially when you are out there in the Herd.
Dr. Faust, when you have the interest & get a chance, I would love to hear your comments on DAVID LEONHARDT's new book, "Ours Was the Shining Future" & the data therein about the decline in life expectancy in US labor as compared with other developed Countries over time. Thx.
I think this is a great idea. We have been sadly lacking in stats, especially since the CDC stopped reporting in real time on deaths. Even now, their page that you refer us to doesn't seem to show US total deaths. With that in mind, could you please explain your sources in more detail? I am particularly interested in deaths because the other metrics are "fuzzier" and I am more focused on the mortality risk for me and my wife. We'd like to get a better handle on the risk of death from COVID versus the risk from flu before the pandemic. That's a useful comparison for us because there was no way flu risks informed or curtailed our daily life (except for annual vaxxes). From looking at CDC historical figures on deaths from flu in the 10 years preceding COVID, the annual deaths ranged widely. We found that the peak was in the low 50,000s and the average was about 35,000. In our minds we decided that if we got to a daily COVID rate that was pretty much equivalent to double the average, i.e. about 70K, we would feel that living a pretty "normal" life would be (psychologically)manageable. In 2021 and 2022 we felt fairly confident that the death data we received on a weekly (and hence daily and annually) basis was pretty good. Different sources collected the data but the numbers were reasonably similar. This year, particularly after sources other than the CDC stopped reporting (notably Johns Hopkins), and the CDC itself stopped with the end of end of health emergency, we don't find the figures easy to access and less believable. For example, the "excess deaths" calculated based on the CDC numbers seem questionable because they have recalculated "normal" deaths from all causes to include the pandemic years of 2021 and 2022. Obviously this creates a higher normal and a lower excess number. This is a very longwinded comment and series of questions, but we'd sure appreciate any help you can provide. The current graph of deaths seems way too low - extrapolating from the current 215 a day gets to only about 78,000 per year which would be nice but seems much too good to be "true". I believe you were calculating excess deaths as your measure. If you still do that, how do you deal with the change in the baseline? And are you using a calculation of excess deaths to create your death chart, because I couldn't even find any reported "baseline" numbers on the CDC website location you linked us too. Again, the CDC data is very hard for us to access and rely on. Can you please help a couple in their mid to late '70s who desperately need to feel comfortable with "living again".
You guys are seriously wearing the superhero capes! This question is totally the user (me) not being able to interpret the lines. Can we tell from the lines if our county has moved from “low” to “medium”? Basically when would it be a smart move to mask up again? I feel like we are still behind the power curve if this virus, BUT THIS SIGHT IS JUST THE BEST!!!!!!
jmoore, per YALE Medicine,the last CV19 Subvaiaint is"ERIS" (EG.5) which is highly transmittable. Mask up Cowboy especially when you are out there in the Herd.
Color coding of the lines for deaths, watercases and tests are absent from my view so I don’t know if positive test are trending up or down.
There was a clear uptick in early August Barbara. That "peak" on. downslope now.
Thanks so much for this!!
Dr. Faust, when you have the interest & get a chance, I would love to hear your comments on DAVID LEONHARDT's new book, "Ours Was the Shining Future" & the data therein about the decline in life expectancy in US labor as compared with other developed Countries over time. Thx.