And ps - a 911 death toll each week is terrifying, and if humans were not prone to “accommodation” as an adaptation (both sensory and behavioral it seems) then maybe there would be more outrage about Dr Wen’s falsehoods. Instead they resonate with the majority’s collective fictional narrative
I’m following the data and appreciate your guidance, along with others.
Our lane as physicians can also be anecdotal. A shame that we as humans often respond better to story than data alone.
The heavy toll of Long Covid, and it’s cognitive, cardiovascular, and physiological effects in a lot of my patients seems to be ticking up rather abruptly since the rise of XBB.1.5. I’m just sayin’
PASC is what keeps me playing this game the same as I ever have - situationally masking, getting all recommended boosters, and being generous with Paxlovid/remdesivir.
Just as I would be skeptical about a paper on lockdowns harms shared by Jay Bhattacharya, I am skeptical of a paper shared by Tyler Black showing that the lockdowns didn't harm kids.
Dr. Black took the position early on, before there was data, that the school closures and lockdowns would be fine for kids [1].
The argument that just because suicides didn't increase in children ignores rising obesity [2], rising drug use and overdoses [3], homicides [4] and soaring rates of depression and anxiety in children [5]. This was not a good time for kids, and common sense says that isolation, increased screen use, and loss of extracurricular activities probably isn't good for kids.
From the Wonder database, all cause accidents among 0-24 year olds were up 28% in 2020 and remained that high in 2021. Homicides up 36% in 2020 and 2021. I see suicides go from 6500 in 2019 to 9,055 in 2020, then back down to 7135 in 2021 (too early to have 2022 data) and that seems worth examining.
But I don't want to "attack the arguer, not the argument" here, though it is important to have context on Tyler Blacks position for reference.
For the argument he proposes (and I concede I may be strawmanning/misrepresenting him here), I am not sure the Denmark cohort is comparable to the US or Canada considering they returned to school May 2020, largely didn't wear masks throughout the pandemic, and only had a second short break from school late 2020/early 2021. Not really comparable to say, children in California or New York City who missed 12 months+ of school.
(for my references there are many newer studies to consider, but for brevity and consistency thought best to stick with CDC findings, though many are dated)
Sweden currently has the lowest excess deaths in the world, slightly edging out Norway upon most recent data I ran. See here for comparison of Nordic countries (all have the lowest excess deaths in the world):
The 2022 numbers if columns G and H were based on only 40 weeks reporting (so I used the first 40 weeks of previous years for baseline). We are close to having complete data for 2022 and I will re-runs soon, but appears with 50 weeks reporting the results will be the same.
TL;DR - If the measure of "success" is based on excess deaths (which I think it should be), then yes, Sweden's approach lead to them having the fewest excess deaths in the world for countries tracked.
And ps - a 911 death toll each week is terrifying, and if humans were not prone to “accommodation” as an adaptation (both sensory and behavioral it seems) then maybe there would be more outrage about Dr Wen’s falsehoods. Instead they resonate with the majority’s collective fictional narrative
Solid week, good work!
I’m following the data and appreciate your guidance, along with others.
Our lane as physicians can also be anecdotal. A shame that we as humans often respond better to story than data alone.
The heavy toll of Long Covid, and it’s cognitive, cardiovascular, and physiological effects in a lot of my patients seems to be ticking up rather abruptly since the rise of XBB.1.5. I’m just sayin’
PASC is what keeps me playing this game the same as I ever have - situationally masking, getting all recommended boosters, and being generous with Paxlovid/remdesivir.
Just as I would be skeptical about a paper on lockdowns harms shared by Jay Bhattacharya, I am skeptical of a paper shared by Tyler Black showing that the lockdowns didn't harm kids.
Dr. Black took the position early on, before there was data, that the school closures and lockdowns would be fine for kids [1].
The argument that just because suicides didn't increase in children ignores rising obesity [2], rising drug use and overdoses [3], homicides [4] and soaring rates of depression and anxiety in children [5]. This was not a good time for kids, and common sense says that isolation, increased screen use, and loss of extracurricular activities probably isn't good for kids.
From the Wonder database, all cause accidents among 0-24 year olds were up 28% in 2020 and remained that high in 2021. Homicides up 36% in 2020 and 2021. I see suicides go from 6500 in 2019 to 9,055 in 2020, then back down to 7135 in 2021 (too early to have 2022 data) and that seems worth examining.
But I don't want to "attack the arguer, not the argument" here, though it is important to have context on Tyler Blacks position for reference.
For the argument he proposes (and I concede I may be strawmanning/misrepresenting him here), I am not sure the Denmark cohort is comparable to the US or Canada considering they returned to school May 2020, largely didn't wear masks throughout the pandemic, and only had a second short break from school late 2020/early 2021. Not really comparable to say, children in California or New York City who missed 12 months+ of school.
____________________________
[1] https://twitter.com/tylerblack32/status/1319077779162365952
[2] https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/children-obesity-COVID-19.html
[3] https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/p1218-overdose-deaths-covid-19.html
[4] https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/podcasts/2021/20211008/20211008.htm
[5] https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2022/p0331-youth-mental-health-covid-19.html
(for my references there are many newer studies to consider, but for brevity and consistency thought best to stick with CDC findings, though many are dated)
Does the 2022 Washington Monthly article by Shannon Brownlee and Jeanne Lenzer show that Sweden was right about not having a lockdown? https://washingtonmonthly.com/2022/04/19/what-sweden-got-right-about-covid/
Sweden currently has the lowest excess deaths in the world, slightly edging out Norway upon most recent data I ran. See here for comparison of Nordic countries (all have the lowest excess deaths in the world):
https://imgur.com/a/Scz0Ovk
The 2022 numbers if columns G and H were based on only 40 weeks reporting (so I used the first 40 weeks of previous years for baseline). We are close to having complete data for 2022 and I will re-runs soon, but appears with 50 weeks reporting the results will be the same.
TL;DR - If the measure of "success" is based on excess deaths (which I think it should be), then yes, Sweden's approach lead to them having the fewest excess deaths in the world for countries tracked.