Thanks for your clearly stated "quantitative" analysis which explicitly states its assumptions. Your scenario is reasonably realistic except for one factor - it is restricted to human incubation. It is very important to appreciate the historical aspect of swine in influenza infection and evolution. As you know at the end of October 2024, the USA found a healthy pig with systemic H5N1 infection on autopsy. It is well known that influenza has a mild impact on swine. Thus they can simultaneously be infected by several variants and are excellent vehicles for reassortment. To my knowledge there is no further data on infected swine, nor is there any prospective surveillance.
Thank you for this analysis. When you lay out Scenario 2, are you speaking of farm workers? It seems unlikely that many live alone and order delivery, as they "represent some of the most socially and economically disadvantaged people in the U.S." (https://www.ncfh.org/facts-about-agricultural-workers-fact-sheet.html)
Thank you for the excellent information. Is this being shared with all of our Senators? Confirmation of a vaccine denier would lead to a scenario with little helpful government oversight and no sensible guidance for a president whose leadership decisions are based on no science. What if enough vaccine was available, but people were prevented from getting it. Even a small likelihood of a pandemic under these circumstances is terrifying.
I believe the odds will increase after Jan 20, 2025. Dark times ahead.
So helpful. Thank you.
Thanks for your clearly stated "quantitative" analysis which explicitly states its assumptions. Your scenario is reasonably realistic except for one factor - it is restricted to human incubation. It is very important to appreciate the historical aspect of swine in influenza infection and evolution. As you know at the end of October 2024, the USA found a healthy pig with systemic H5N1 infection on autopsy. It is well known that influenza has a mild impact on swine. Thus they can simultaneously be infected by several variants and are excellent vehicles for reassortment. To my knowledge there is no further data on infected swine, nor is there any prospective surveillance.
Thank you for this analysis. When you lay out Scenario 2, are you speaking of farm workers? It seems unlikely that many live alone and order delivery, as they "represent some of the most socially and economically disadvantaged people in the U.S." (https://www.ncfh.org/facts-about-agricultural-workers-fact-sheet.html)
Thank you for the excellent information. Is this being shared with all of our Senators? Confirmation of a vaccine denier would lead to a scenario with little helpful government oversight and no sensible guidance for a president whose leadership decisions are based on no science. What if enough vaccine was available, but people were prevented from getting it. Even a small likelihood of a pandemic under these circumstances is terrifying.