Data snapshot: Covid hospitalizations by state, October 16, 2023.
Here’s an update from the Inside Medicine Covid metrics dashboard. Last week, we gave a state-by-state readout focused on hospitalizations, along with some wastewater trends (the best proxy for community virus levels these days).
This time around, we are changing up the format and adding a visual component so that you can see how things compare both to recent times (in addition to the previous week, previous peaks, and all-time peaks). The idea is to give you context for these numbers. (For an explanation for each column, see the notes at the end of this post.)
Also, if you want to see more information about your state or county, as well as updates on influenza and RSV activity, it’s all updated on the dashboard.
On to the data…
Summary: There were 2,481 new Covid-related hospitalizations per day for the week ending October 7th in the US, a favorable if modest downward trend from the previous week (2,746 per day). We are currently at just over 11% of the all-time peak for new Covid hospitalizations (1/15/2022, early Omicron), although that might be a low-end estimate (see notes at the bottom), and we are down 20% from a recent “local” peak the week ending 9/9/2023.
65% (33 of 51) of US states (50 states plus Washington D.C.) had a favorable hospitalization trend from last week, and 66% had lower wastewater levels. So that’s all good news. Still, cold and flu season awaits.
Find your state below:
Notes on the data.
A couple of points to consider as you read the hospitalization data:
What counts as a Covid hospitalizations has changed over time. That is, whether hospitalizations that are “for versus with” Covid count has changed in some places. So take that into consideration. That said, as I’ve written many times, most so-called “incidental” Covid hospitalizations are hardly incidental. They are Covid “tip-overs.” Someone hospitalized for a mild heart attack who tests positive for Covid is less likely to have had that event if not for the infection. (The extent to which the virus sets off a “ticking time bomb” is impossible to measure, but it’s more significant than many realize.)
Nowadays, Covid testing is not strictly required at the time of hospital admission in most places. (In fact, in my hospital, they took the Covid test off of our main testing screen; talk about a small work environment change that will lead to a big behavioral change). As a result, many cases that fall into the tip-over category are likely getting missed now. That’s dangerous because hospital spread is another problem which many underestimate. All told, the more recent hospitalization data likely represent low-end estimates.
How to read the data.
Start date: This is how far back the hospitalization data for that state goes back.
New weekly hospitalizations: The actual number of new Covid positive patients hospitalized in the most recent week of data.
Current Week Ranking: Out of all the weeks we have data for, how does this one rank? How does the current level compare to the worst ever peak in this state. Example: 8% means that this week has 8% of the hospitalizations as the worst week the state ever had during the pandemic. (Note: this is different from percentile, which we use for our wastewater readout.)
Trend: How does the most recent week of data compare to the one directly prior. “Worse” means that levels are higher than last week. “Better” means levels are lower.
Last Time This High: Before the current week’s data, when were things last this bad? If this week is better than last week, the answer will always be last week (naturally). But, if this week is worse than last week, we’ll tell you how far you’d have to go to find levels as high as they are now.
All-Time High (Worst): When was this state’s hospitalization level highest (since the data start date, anyway).
All-Time Low (Best): When was this state’s hospitalization level lowest (since the data start date, anyway).
Wastewater Trend: How do coronavirus wastewater levels (i.e., a proxy for case loads) in the area compare to the previous week?
Hospitalization trend since July 1, 2023. How does this week compare to all weeks in the state since summer?
Thanks to Benjy Renton for coding and curating our dashboard!
Super data, thank you again. I note the highest hospitalization rate in WEST VIRGINIA [100] . I will check "Notes"
Highest Country WV rates on the Norther border in Harrisson & Pendleton counties and in the south in Mercer & McDowell counties.
Well done, thank you. I appreciate any time there's "an adult in the room" providing rational statistical data with caveats appropriately addresses. It's really helpful, at least to me.